Monday 26 November 2012

Demographics V Economics, Dont Chain Yourself to a Corpse

I really don't subscribe to the prevailing view of the "older workforce", live longer work longer myth I think its very lazy thinking that has the potential for serious disaster. Fact is when you get to your mid forties you realise that your body cannot function to the same levels as before, any one who thinks they can run an efficient productive economy with an older workforce is either someone who works in an office or a politician.

For us its a matter of moving away from our owner occupier culture and saving to live longer. For an efficient workforce you need a good stock off new blood, firstly to do the donkey work and then to take over the management as they get older.

We in the UK have done this by accident by our immigration polices, (a good or bad thing you choose) a sort of social Darwinism has been at work excluding the unproductive underclass through the benefit system (which is the reason for the Coalitions changes) and pulling in younger more energetic kids from mainly eastern Europe. Now it seems the new arrivals want to stay and have children. This is I think with the abundance of Shale gas we have down the West side of the country will be our get out of jail card in the medium to long term. (first we have to sort our banks and National balance sheet out) So the problem for us is keeping everyone happy, and thankfully we have a pretty good track record on inter community relations baring the odd glitch, and policy overkill, as we are seeing in Rotherham. Its never easy but we always get there in the end.

Take Italy for instance (most of EU has the same problem) it does not have the same record (just watch an Italy football match and listen to the crowd when a certain Man City player gets the ball) Italy is dying on its feet, with a replacement rate of 1.5 against 2.4 just to stand still)  no matter what economics plan they come up with the fact is they are already in a tailspin of decline. The next generation of Italians/Europeans are going to be asked to pay Italys debt, look after grandma and try to make a living for themselves. (along with being part of the dysfunctional Euro system of course)

Just as mortgages here in the UK are going to be much more age sensitive you would expect gilts and bonds to be too, I suspect now the questions are really being asked, and thus the disconnect between the economic and budgetary numbers and gilt prices,

Italy's demographics From 2007, its not good reading at all. Maybe Silvio with his Bunga parties was trying to make a wider point to the Italian public.