I really don't subscribe to the prevailing view of the "older workforce", live longer work longer myth I think its very lazy thinking that has the potential for serious disaster.
Fact is when you get to your mid forties you realise that your body cannot function to the same levels as before, any one who thinks they can run an efficient productive economy with an older workforce is either someone who works in an office or a politician.
For us its a matter of moving away from our owner occupier culture and saving to live longer.
For an efficient workforce you need a good stock off new blood, firstly to do the donkey work and then to take over the management as they get older.
We in the UK have done this by accident by our immigration polices, (a good or bad thing you choose) a sort of social Darwinism has been at work excluding the unproductive underclass through the benefit system (which is the reason for the Coalitions changes) and pulling in younger more energetic kids from mainly eastern Europe. Now it seems the new arrivals want to stay and have children. This is I think with the abundance of Shale gas we have down the West side of the country will be our get out of jail card in the medium to long term. (first we have to sort our banks and National balance sheet out) So the problem for us is keeping everyone happy, and thankfully we have a pretty good track record on inter community relations baring the odd glitch, and policy overkill, as we are seeing in Rotherham. Its never easy but we always get there in the end.
Take Italy for instance (most of EU has the same problem) it does not have the same record (just watch an Italy football match and listen to the crowd when a certain Man City player gets the ball)
Italy is dying on its feet, with a replacement rate of 1.5 against 2.4 just to stand still) no matter what economics plan they come up with the fact is they are already in a tailspin of decline. The next generation of Italians/Europeans are going to be asked to pay Italys debt, look after grandma and try to make a living for themselves. (along with being part of the dysfunctional Euro system of course)
Just as mortgages here in the UK are going to be much more age sensitive you would expect gilts and bonds to be too, I suspect now the questions are really being asked, and thus the disconnect between the economic and budgetary numbers and gilt prices,
Italy's demographics From 2007, its not good reading at all. Maybe Silvio with his Bunga parties was trying to make a wider point to the Italian public.
Monday, 26 November 2012
Friday, 23 November 2012
God Of The Rules
Humans are irrational. Discuss.
When I said this in my last post I was not implying that I was rational and the rest of the world was not. That would be a very arrogant statement, and it would need a healthy chunk of ideology, the very thing the post was pointing too as the main destructive culprit in the Israeli/Arab dispute itself and our perceptions of it.
Of course I am irrational. The starting point for all our beliefs is not logical reason, we are not computers, we are brilliant but flawed creatures floating aboard a rock in eternity. Our starting point is our feelings and culture that we are born in. Its very hard for any of us whatever our cognitive skills or otherwise to open those beliefs up to scrutiny and let facts, logic and trial and error shape our world view. People are often personally offended when they are confronted with such evidence to contradict those views deeply and personally held.
My irrationality is legendary. I support a perpetual under achieving football club, most people do. I love sport, nothing much rational about sport is there? I believe in God, not the bloke with the beard sitting the afterlife, but a God of the rules. All I can point to in this belief is a logical statement by one of the greatest Mathematicians of all time *Kurt Godel, even his statement goes beyond what I can think could be *God.
I think what we have to do is try to divide stuff that is important, such as Poverty, Security ect, Against stuff that is not important, like the love of average football clubs. the former its important to try to aim for Objective Truth, the later you can take a chance with.
So what Is this thing called "truth"?. If seems our Universities have given up on it and are teaching the next generation that truth is just a matter of perspective, this is called "Post Modernism" I think this is one of the most destructive ideas in our culture, I will go further its Poison.
Our Society runs pretty much on a trial and error basis, our success and the Wests has been built on being able to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and if not embrace change, to be able to ride its wave without falling off. We have been teaching whole generations since the Sixties in humanities and now creeping into the Hard Sciences that we can ignore our failings, they don't matter, what matters is how we feel about it, how we perceive it. Thus we get worked up about things like relative poverty and being poorer than Richard Branson, more so than family breakdowns, changes in family dynamics and issues such as mental illness that are real features of Poverty. Progress demands we identify and correct error.
The truth is hard, it takes time. Its a bit like trying to take a photo of the inside of a Train carriage as it fly's past you at 150 miles an hour at a level crossing. Its possible, but the results are often a disappointing. It takes a lot of technical skill and bags of time consuming deduction to work out what was happening in the carriage as it went by. This for all our sakes cannot be undertaken without Reason and Logic, the very thing that comes second on our tools of thinking list.
"Truth is" whatever is the case. Switch off the emotion when its important please.
*More on Godel here
*An Absolutely brilliant Documentary on Mathematics and God.
When I said this in my last post I was not implying that I was rational and the rest of the world was not. That would be a very arrogant statement, and it would need a healthy chunk of ideology, the very thing the post was pointing too as the main destructive culprit in the Israeli/Arab dispute itself and our perceptions of it.
Of course I am irrational. The starting point for all our beliefs is not logical reason, we are not computers, we are brilliant but flawed creatures floating aboard a rock in eternity. Our starting point is our feelings and culture that we are born in. Its very hard for any of us whatever our cognitive skills or otherwise to open those beliefs up to scrutiny and let facts, logic and trial and error shape our world view. People are often personally offended when they are confronted with such evidence to contradict those views deeply and personally held.
My irrationality is legendary. I support a perpetual under achieving football club, most people do. I love sport, nothing much rational about sport is there? I believe in God, not the bloke with the beard sitting the afterlife, but a God of the rules. All I can point to in this belief is a logical statement by one of the greatest Mathematicians of all time *Kurt Godel, even his statement goes beyond what I can think could be *God.
I think what we have to do is try to divide stuff that is important, such as Poverty, Security ect, Against stuff that is not important, like the love of average football clubs. the former its important to try to aim for Objective Truth, the later you can take a chance with.
So what Is this thing called "truth"?. If seems our Universities have given up on it and are teaching the next generation that truth is just a matter of perspective, this is called "Post Modernism" I think this is one of the most destructive ideas in our culture, I will go further its Poison.
Our Society runs pretty much on a trial and error basis, our success and the Wests has been built on being able to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and if not embrace change, to be able to ride its wave without falling off. We have been teaching whole generations since the Sixties in humanities and now creeping into the Hard Sciences that we can ignore our failings, they don't matter, what matters is how we feel about it, how we perceive it. Thus we get worked up about things like relative poverty and being poorer than Richard Branson, more so than family breakdowns, changes in family dynamics and issues such as mental illness that are real features of Poverty. Progress demands we identify and correct error.
The truth is hard, it takes time. Its a bit like trying to take a photo of the inside of a Train carriage as it fly's past you at 150 miles an hour at a level crossing. Its possible, but the results are often a disappointing. It takes a lot of technical skill and bags of time consuming deduction to work out what was happening in the carriage as it went by. This for all our sakes cannot be undertaken without Reason and Logic, the very thing that comes second on our tools of thinking list.
"Truth is" whatever is the case. Switch off the emotion when its important please.
*More on Godel here
*An Absolutely brilliant Documentary on Mathematics and God.
Saturday, 17 November 2012
Vote For Sale
Ive decided to sell my vote to the highest bidder, not cash of course heavens forbid, commitments will do, in writing of course.
So with 2 and half years to go instead of the politcos telling me what they can do for me and bribing me with my own money, I think we should reverse the process and allow them to bid on my core demands.
So here in my blog I give a firm commitment that if you Mr or Mrs Politico give me what I want, the trusty Wilko red bingo marker will be thrown in the recycling bin. No more spoiling.
I was going to make it five core issues that I wanted addressed but I decided to make it easy for the stressed political class, I would not wish to raise the bar too high, anyways here we go.
1, EU. in or out referendum. Now I accept that the EU is possibly leaving us rather we leave them as they head long into the uplands of progressive wonder, but just in case, in the lifetime of the next parliament I want the opportunity to vote to leave the EU.
2, Banks. Within the lifetime of the next parliament I want banks split from their retail and investment divisions, and I want their limited liability removed.
3, A new Beverage report. I want a proper judge lead obviously, independent report looking at the welfare state, the tax system and pensions with a view to over the course of time replacing the whole thing with Land Value tax, a simple tax system, and a system of basic income, all considered and a referendum on its results.
Nice and simple, I await your offers. but one last thing. A failure to deliver clause. You don't implement your commitments to me, you forfeit all rights to any sort of state funded pension. A technicality I know but as long as we don't have legally binding manifestos a little commitment is needed
So with 2 and half years to go instead of the politcos telling me what they can do for me and bribing me with my own money, I think we should reverse the process and allow them to bid on my core demands.
So here in my blog I give a firm commitment that if you Mr or Mrs Politico give me what I want, the trusty Wilko red bingo marker will be thrown in the recycling bin. No more spoiling.
I was going to make it five core issues that I wanted addressed but I decided to make it easy for the stressed political class, I would not wish to raise the bar too high, anyways here we go.
1, EU. in or out referendum. Now I accept that the EU is possibly leaving us rather we leave them as they head long into the uplands of progressive wonder, but just in case, in the lifetime of the next parliament I want the opportunity to vote to leave the EU.
2, Banks. Within the lifetime of the next parliament I want banks split from their retail and investment divisions, and I want their limited liability removed.
3, A new Beverage report. I want a proper judge lead obviously, independent report looking at the welfare state, the tax system and pensions with a view to over the course of time replacing the whole thing with Land Value tax, a simple tax system, and a system of basic income, all considered and a referendum on its results.
Nice and simple, I await your offers. but one last thing. A failure to deliver clause. You don't implement your commitments to me, you forfeit all rights to any sort of state funded pension. A technicality I know but as long as we don't have legally binding manifestos a little commitment is needed
Anti-Politics
I am often accused of being a cynic, hardcore anti-politics type, when of course I am not being accused of being a avid/rabid Fox News aficionado. (which as I get Virgin not Sky is unlikely) I accept and understand that it is very hard for some people to think outside of their political Paradigm. Being confronted by people who can think for themselves is not what the politicos want, they want you to be a part of their club.
Politics like the rest of the world is changing fast, just like people with odd sexual fantasies are now able to easily contact other oddballs with similar odd thoughts and find joint reinforcement, so too we are in the middle of something similar in politics. The fetishisation of politics if you like.
I think this process still has a long way to go, but I think the age of coalitions is here to stay like it or not, the question is how to deal with it so it does not devalue the democratic process and turn it into a farce.
The first test is that the electorate has the tools to remove a government without the resort to violence. The electorate have quite rightly worked out that we are now in a position where the legal framework mainly emitting from outside the UK in the form of the EU is chaining the politicos to a certain path regardless of their vote. It is in essence being diluted. This is a very dangerous paradox. Votes have to have value for democracy to function in practice not in the imagination.
It seems to me since 1972 when we joined the ECC/EC/EU and soon to be EU superstate, we have gone down a path of continental legalism and abandoned except in the criminal law, common law which is a process of constant evolution of law and practice through judgments made in courts.
We need to bring back into the democratic sphere Civil Law so jurys that are the ultimate in democratic action can shape once again the world we find ourselves in. Yes they will muck up and get it wrong, jury's are not perfect but over time through trial and error the right path will be arrived at. Allow them once again to judge and award damages.
Yes we will live in fear of Lawyers or gangsters with briefcases as P. J. O'Rourke correctly described them, but so what. I would sooner take on a speculative Lawyer who I can answer back in open court than a politico who either courts me or more often ignores me.
Added bonus with all this of course would be less politics and a more relevant political process. If I were to invent something that goes on to be found to be harmful to the public good I would be found out by the courts and have to give up any wealth earned through its manufacture, at the moment through limited liability and insurance I walk away with the money. Do you think bankers would have been more careful of the risks they were running under my preferred model of politics and law?
As I have said before the Internet is going to change things beyond what is presently imaginable. The politicos will work hard to stop it doing so, all monopolies will fight hard to hold onto their rights and privileges, but I am confident they will be swept away in the end too.
The whole politico industry that has mushroomed over the past decades is based on the idea that we can through a set of words regulate and legislate our way to a better world. This stupid and pretty much falsified theory is nearing its end, the money has been looted and we are running on empty.
Its time for a new model.
Politics like the rest of the world is changing fast, just like people with odd sexual fantasies are now able to easily contact other oddballs with similar odd thoughts and find joint reinforcement, so too we are in the middle of something similar in politics. The fetishisation of politics if you like.
I think this process still has a long way to go, but I think the age of coalitions is here to stay like it or not, the question is how to deal with it so it does not devalue the democratic process and turn it into a farce.
The first test is that the electorate has the tools to remove a government without the resort to violence. The electorate have quite rightly worked out that we are now in a position where the legal framework mainly emitting from outside the UK in the form of the EU is chaining the politicos to a certain path regardless of their vote. It is in essence being diluted. This is a very dangerous paradox. Votes have to have value for democracy to function in practice not in the imagination.
It seems to me since 1972 when we joined the ECC/EC/EU and soon to be EU superstate, we have gone down a path of continental legalism and abandoned except in the criminal law, common law which is a process of constant evolution of law and practice through judgments made in courts.
We need to bring back into the democratic sphere Civil Law so jurys that are the ultimate in democratic action can shape once again the world we find ourselves in. Yes they will muck up and get it wrong, jury's are not perfect but over time through trial and error the right path will be arrived at. Allow them once again to judge and award damages.
Yes we will live in fear of Lawyers or gangsters with briefcases as P. J. O'Rourke correctly described them, but so what. I would sooner take on a speculative Lawyer who I can answer back in open court than a politico who either courts me or more often ignores me.
Added bonus with all this of course would be less politics and a more relevant political process. If I were to invent something that goes on to be found to be harmful to the public good I would be found out by the courts and have to give up any wealth earned through its manufacture, at the moment through limited liability and insurance I walk away with the money. Do you think bankers would have been more careful of the risks they were running under my preferred model of politics and law?
As I have said before the Internet is going to change things beyond what is presently imaginable. The politicos will work hard to stop it doing so, all monopolies will fight hard to hold onto their rights and privileges, but I am confident they will be swept away in the end too.
The whole politico industry that has mushroomed over the past decades is based on the idea that we can through a set of words regulate and legislate our way to a better world. This stupid and pretty much falsified theory is nearing its end, the money has been looted and we are running on empty.
Its time for a new model.
Saturday, 10 November 2012
Words That Are Nearly Enough......
Into my heart an air that kills
From yon far country blows:
What are those blue remembered hills,
What spires, what farms are those?
That is the land of lost content,
I see it shining plain,
The happy highways where I went
And cannot come again.
What are those blue remembered hills,
What spires, what farms are those?
That is the land of lost content,
I see it shining plain,
The happy highways where I went
And cannot come again.
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