One of the things I come across on the net espeically from people on the left, its their ignorance as to what markets and capitalism truly are.
The first mistake they make is talking in terms of both capitalism and markets being the same thing, they are not. In this post I will deal with Markets and the next one I will talk about my opinions on the nature of capitalism. (note its capitalism without a capital "C")
A market in very simple terms is a mirror against human actions. You will often hear the cries of "the market has failed" thus it is someway a fault of the market that it failed. Thats a bit like looking in the mirror and blaming the mirror for you being ugly. When you need to get the cash together for some plastic surgery.
Markets should fail, that is what we want them to do if necessary. A bit like the fuse box on your electricity circuit, when its overloaded it fuses and shuts down all or part of the system. You inspect the system, repair if necessary and flick the system back on.
People look at the bust of 2008 and talk in terms of market failure, but its not failure at all. It was markets that alerted us to the failures in the housing bubble and the international movements of capital that facilitated that bubble. Very few economists predicted the crash, plenty predicted the housing bubble popping but not the resulting bank failures it would cause. He have had housing bubbles before without banking collapses. Few saw under the iceberg. In fact one study from the Netherlands found that out of 22k professional economists less than 200 got both the bubble and crash together in a perfect prediction, this is less than chance. Next time you hear about economics being a science remember that fact. Thats not to say economics is not important it is, but its not a science.
And how many Politicians understood and predicted the events of 2008? even less than the economists. Too busy telling everyone how clever they were producing all this growth from what turned out to be bad debt.
Markets give us information as to how well resources are being used, so we can make the decision as to how to proceed. Do you spend a million on paperclips or JCBs? Misallocation of resources is the reason we find ourselves in he mess we are in today, if we had taken the money from the far east emerging economies and did productive things with it then the debt would be a good debt. But we sunk the cash into the land through real estate and created a bubble. This is not markets fault its our fault.
There are really two distinct ideas as to what prices are. Firstly the Marxist one which believes that prices are based on labour (money being stored labour) and thus calculable through out the economy. The other being that prices are what ever people are willing to pay for the goods, (money being trust) thus much more fluid through the economy, the one I subscribe too.
The Lefts distrust of markets I believe comes from the idea that prices in someway can be fixed, they cant. There is too much changing information within any given market for that to be the case.
So they you have it in a nutshell, No great shakes, no need for all angst.
Friday 19 October 2012
Monday 15 October 2012
'The Snatcher Keeps On Breathing'
An absolutly sick tweet from Harry Harpham @sheffharry
Here is the rest of it,
"How come someone like Neil Armstrong (who had so much humanity) dies, whilst The Snatcher just keeps on breathing"
What is interesting about this tweet is not its totally disrespect for another human being, one that was democratically elected three times in her life. Or its implied hatred of a sufferer of dementia, not dying in one go from a heart attack and the like, but is suffering a living death you would not wish on your enemy. No its not all that, its Harrys use of the death of Neil Armstrong that is the really interesting thing about this sick tweet.
The psychosis of hatred, is not unique to the Left, but as with their new and more current hatred of Nick Clegg you would have thought people who think they have something to offer the voters and people of the UK would put their energies into a positive pursuit of policies and ideas rather than petty hatreds.
20 July 1969 was an probably he greatest day in human history, no one will ever take away from Neil Armstrong the fact that he was the first human to step on a heavenly body no matter how far we make it out into the cosmos.And all I can remember is standing in my rubber nappy feeling a bit wet and half asleep, but there you go.
Todays smartphones are thousands of times more powerful than the computer used to get Apollo to the moon. Think about that for a second, we humans for thousands of years lived in a world that hardly changed then came the industrial revolution and within a few generations we had got to the moon and 40 years more had multiplied the computing power that we used to get to the moon by thousands. As a narrative that is almost unbelivable.
So ten years later we come to Thatchers first election victory and 4 May 1979. The first and only Prime minister with a scientific degree as well as being a woman of course. Three years after we had been bailed out by the IMF, and already into the agreed austerity measures that came with that loan (*that's right the Thatcher cuts started under Labour, that's what the winter of discontent was about, remember?)
The question I ask myself about Mrs T. is did she matter? To Harry and many more people around the North she most certainly does. She is the reason for their suffering and blight. Which is odd as this country even today is a much better place than it was in 1979. Would you really swap 1972 or 2012?
I don't have the figures to hand but say with certainty the number of man hours to make a tonne of steel has fell significantly and this is a result of the same thing that helped put man on the moon. The microchip.
So too coal, which was made uneconomic by North Sea gas. Microchips gave us the tools to discover and control the resource and even today the discovery and extraction of Shale gas is not possible without the computing power we have at our disposal. Every Industry in the world has been in some way touched by this revolution. And its highly probably that the reason we are struggling for growth now is that a lot of these efficiency saving we have got from this revolution are now priced into the economic system.
Another question I ask myself is one relating to Feminism from the 1960s onwards. Does that really matter? Seems to me the Pill gave women for the first time in history, power over reproduction. This discovery far exceeds anything political that feminists have come up with since 1960. They like to think it was them, protesting and eventually legislating but I doubt it, seems to me it was the changes in the demographics and dynamics the contraceptive pill brought about into the economy that mattered.
This revolution and the microchip one that we are still living through today, comes with advantages and disadvantages and regardless of who was Prime Minister, it was likely to happen anyway, we cant put the genie back in the bottle. I don't believe that anything is certain in life, but Trade Union reforms, the control of public finances were all highly likely to be the answers to the questions in the world we found ourselves living in. So why the hate?
No one likes economic change in their lives, Mrs T was the figurehead of that change. I for one did not like and still do not agree with her ideal of a meritocracy, that to me is a harsh society to live in, but she got the big stuff right, in so far as you can get political questions right. She was a lucky and skilled political leader. Clemente Attlee, and Margret Thatcher are the two leaders to study in British post war politics, they were in the right places at the right time. Agree or disagree with then both but they set the tone on if not the direction of the ship to varying degrees of success and failure.
I feel sorry for *Harry and his like, they are like primitive people in primitive societies, they have the same brains as we have today but they lack the cumulative knowledge that we have available. In those gaps like the ancients they put in superstitions,fears, and hatreds. Harry does not understand the link between Thatcher and Armstrong it would represent to him too difficult an issue to contemplate. His gaps he is filling are in his 'keep breathing' tweet.
Harry is like walking on the beach after a storm in the moonlight and coming across half dead and dead fish in shallow ponds trying to find the sea, some beginning to rot and stink, others shining in the moonlight as they slowly die, some flapping in desperation. Like Harry all lost. I pity him. I wonder if the fish have ever noticed the stars and wondered like me. We all know Harry hasn't.
*The Royal Hallamshire Hospital for a time was mothballed for a while due to these cuts and the completion was rushed to try and get it finished for the 1979 election.
*I suppose I should use the title of Councillor, but I think you need to be worthy of it.
Here is the rest of it,
"How come someone like Neil Armstrong (who had so much humanity) dies, whilst The Snatcher just keeps on breathing"
What is interesting about this tweet is not its totally disrespect for another human being, one that was democratically elected three times in her life. Or its implied hatred of a sufferer of dementia, not dying in one go from a heart attack and the like, but is suffering a living death you would not wish on your enemy. No its not all that, its Harrys use of the death of Neil Armstrong that is the really interesting thing about this sick tweet.
The psychosis of hatred, is not unique to the Left, but as with their new and more current hatred of Nick Clegg you would have thought people who think they have something to offer the voters and people of the UK would put their energies into a positive pursuit of policies and ideas rather than petty hatreds.
20 July 1969 was an probably he greatest day in human history, no one will ever take away from Neil Armstrong the fact that he was the first human to step on a heavenly body no matter how far we make it out into the cosmos.And all I can remember is standing in my rubber nappy feeling a bit wet and half asleep, but there you go.
Todays smartphones are thousands of times more powerful than the computer used to get Apollo to the moon. Think about that for a second, we humans for thousands of years lived in a world that hardly changed then came the industrial revolution and within a few generations we had got to the moon and 40 years more had multiplied the computing power that we used to get to the moon by thousands. As a narrative that is almost unbelivable.
So ten years later we come to Thatchers first election victory and 4 May 1979. The first and only Prime minister with a scientific degree as well as being a woman of course. Three years after we had been bailed out by the IMF, and already into the agreed austerity measures that came with that loan (*that's right the Thatcher cuts started under Labour, that's what the winter of discontent was about, remember?)
The question I ask myself about Mrs T. is did she matter? To Harry and many more people around the North she most certainly does. She is the reason for their suffering and blight. Which is odd as this country even today is a much better place than it was in 1979. Would you really swap 1972 or 2012?
I don't have the figures to hand but say with certainty the number of man hours to make a tonne of steel has fell significantly and this is a result of the same thing that helped put man on the moon. The microchip.
So too coal, which was made uneconomic by North Sea gas. Microchips gave us the tools to discover and control the resource and even today the discovery and extraction of Shale gas is not possible without the computing power we have at our disposal. Every Industry in the world has been in some way touched by this revolution. And its highly probably that the reason we are struggling for growth now is that a lot of these efficiency saving we have got from this revolution are now priced into the economic system.
Another question I ask myself is one relating to Feminism from the 1960s onwards. Does that really matter? Seems to me the Pill gave women for the first time in history, power over reproduction. This discovery far exceeds anything political that feminists have come up with since 1960. They like to think it was them, protesting and eventually legislating but I doubt it, seems to me it was the changes in the demographics and dynamics the contraceptive pill brought about into the economy that mattered.
This revolution and the microchip one that we are still living through today, comes with advantages and disadvantages and regardless of who was Prime Minister, it was likely to happen anyway, we cant put the genie back in the bottle. I don't believe that anything is certain in life, but Trade Union reforms, the control of public finances were all highly likely to be the answers to the questions in the world we found ourselves living in. So why the hate?
No one likes economic change in their lives, Mrs T was the figurehead of that change. I for one did not like and still do not agree with her ideal of a meritocracy, that to me is a harsh society to live in, but she got the big stuff right, in so far as you can get political questions right. She was a lucky and skilled political leader. Clemente Attlee, and Margret Thatcher are the two leaders to study in British post war politics, they were in the right places at the right time. Agree or disagree with then both but they set the tone on if not the direction of the ship to varying degrees of success and failure.
I feel sorry for *Harry and his like, they are like primitive people in primitive societies, they have the same brains as we have today but they lack the cumulative knowledge that we have available. In those gaps like the ancients they put in superstitions,fears, and hatreds. Harry does not understand the link between Thatcher and Armstrong it would represent to him too difficult an issue to contemplate. His gaps he is filling are in his 'keep breathing' tweet.
Harry is like walking on the beach after a storm in the moonlight and coming across half dead and dead fish in shallow ponds trying to find the sea, some beginning to rot and stink, others shining in the moonlight as they slowly die, some flapping in desperation. Like Harry all lost. I pity him. I wonder if the fish have ever noticed the stars and wondered like me. We all know Harry hasn't.
*The Royal Hallamshire Hospital for a time was mothballed for a while due to these cuts and the completion was rushed to try and get it finished for the 1979 election.
*I suppose I should use the title of Councillor, but I think you need to be worthy of it.
Saturday 13 October 2012
Wednesday 10 October 2012
Freaks! Knowing What You Dont Know
You are a freak, yes you, you are a freak.
Dont take it personally, I am a freak too. In fact take a good look around, there is plenty of freaks about. And its not just the living things, the landscapes, the clouds, the universe, all freaks.
Best guess on the origins of the universe at the moment is that its a freak of nature, a flux. If God made us he probably did not have much of a choice in the matter.
Then there is the earth, in the sweet spot with just the right conditions that life could crawl out of the sea and stand up and one day be you and me. Its all pretty much an accident.
Dont like the sound of all this? I for one am thankful for my blessings, I am happy to call myself a freak, the scum of the universe. Its a good place to be, in the sewer looking up at the stars (you should know which freak said that..or is it gutter? never mind)
The we get to human history, we are told that it is shaped and has a structure and destiny too it (well at least the Socialists do, and a few on the right) this too is a freak. It takes about 1 minute to pick any point in history a date and see that the events around what formed that event where in fact accidents and luck.
Winston Churchill should never have lived through the Boer War. Watson and Crick should have lost the race to the double helix, the list is endless. If you ever wanted to write a book its pretty easy to write any counter factual of history and change the names, many do.
This is a bit of a problem for us modern Humans. We see an ordered world of schools, hospitals, food on supermarket shelves, the idea this could all be an accident and cannot be relied upon in the future fills us with dread and fear. The future would be uncertain and we don't like uncertainty do we?
Luck plays a big hand in our lives, we like to think it was 'hard work' and 'perseverance', 'skill' and 'guile' when we happened upon the right place at the right time.
That is not to diminish the idea of hard work. hard work matters if you can muster the energy then the unlucky parts of your life will be easier to manage.
In this freakish world intelligence matters but not in the way you think it matters. True intelligence is not what you know or how well you understand it. Its about the things you don't know and how well you perceive them, and the risks therein that come with the things you do know.
This is the reason we find ourselves in the state we are in. We got over confident and misunderstood risks that we were storing up, we were masters of the universe, no more boom and bust, the riddle of history solved, quantified and classed as a science, which as with History ,Politics, Economics and Finance are not in anyway sciences, but strangely pretend to be so in our schools and universities.
This might seem a little odd, that's because it is odd, its freakish.
Good luck with the anti-knowledge, I have struggled all my life with it but even a glimpse within its mysterious orb is the most satisfying thing that you could wish for. A beauty like no other.
Dont take it personally, I am a freak too. In fact take a good look around, there is plenty of freaks about. And its not just the living things, the landscapes, the clouds, the universe, all freaks.
Best guess on the origins of the universe at the moment is that its a freak of nature, a flux. If God made us he probably did not have much of a choice in the matter.
Then there is the earth, in the sweet spot with just the right conditions that life could crawl out of the sea and stand up and one day be you and me. Its all pretty much an accident.
Dont like the sound of all this? I for one am thankful for my blessings, I am happy to call myself a freak, the scum of the universe. Its a good place to be, in the sewer looking up at the stars (you should know which freak said that..or is it gutter? never mind)
The we get to human history, we are told that it is shaped and has a structure and destiny too it (well at least the Socialists do, and a few on the right) this too is a freak. It takes about 1 minute to pick any point in history a date and see that the events around what formed that event where in fact accidents and luck.
Winston Churchill should never have lived through the Boer War. Watson and Crick should have lost the race to the double helix, the list is endless. If you ever wanted to write a book its pretty easy to write any counter factual of history and change the names, many do.
This is a bit of a problem for us modern Humans. We see an ordered world of schools, hospitals, food on supermarket shelves, the idea this could all be an accident and cannot be relied upon in the future fills us with dread and fear. The future would be uncertain and we don't like uncertainty do we?
Luck plays a big hand in our lives, we like to think it was 'hard work' and 'perseverance', 'skill' and 'guile' when we happened upon the right place at the right time.
That is not to diminish the idea of hard work. hard work matters if you can muster the energy then the unlucky parts of your life will be easier to manage.
In this freakish world intelligence matters but not in the way you think it matters. True intelligence is not what you know or how well you understand it. Its about the things you don't know and how well you perceive them, and the risks therein that come with the things you do know.
This is the reason we find ourselves in the state we are in. We got over confident and misunderstood risks that we were storing up, we were masters of the universe, no more boom and bust, the riddle of history solved, quantified and classed as a science, which as with History ,Politics, Economics and Finance are not in anyway sciences, but strangely pretend to be so in our schools and universities.
This might seem a little odd, that's because it is odd, its freakish.
Good luck with the anti-knowledge, I have struggled all my life with it but even a glimpse within its mysterious orb is the most satisfying thing that you could wish for. A beauty like no other.
Monday 8 October 2012
Pimps & Hoes & Carnage
"Glorifying pimps isn't fantasy; it's a nightmare!" Screams the ever helpful @PaulBlomfieldMP. Since when did dressing up for a night out result in the glorification of anything? if anything its people laughing at the realities of life.
Does Halloween result in Children growing up to be psychotic mass murderers? You would expect a politician to understand that reality and fantasy are two entirely different things.
Ed Balls dressing up as a Nazi did not result in the introduction of death camps in Morley and Outwood. We keep getting the usual crap from the usual suspects? Firstly its good easy headlines, who would ever want to be a pimp or a hoe, its a no brainier. except this is not what the event is about, or the dressing up is about. Nice simple Brownie points for protecting the civic virtue by a champion of women's rights. Keep up your Profile is @PaulBlomfieldMP mantra.
So if a women quite liked the idea of selling her body for sex, would @PaulBlomfieldMP protect her rights to do just that, after all its her body? I doubt it. @PaulBlomfieldMP would be the deranged priest in the middle ages telling the Peasants not to pretend to be farm animals, "ungodly" he would shout, expect in the 21st Century we have a brand new type of Puritan, the secular one. the same mind set, the flock need a Shepard, they are not wise enough or adult enough to know the difference between the fantasy and the reality.
Maybe I am too liberal in my social attitudes? maybe a more interesting and enlightening pub crawl based on the symbolism of the Pimps & Hoes event, but a Labour and Bankers one. Think Edutainment. After all its the current generation who the bill and social costs fall too.
The Pimps can be the Bankers, always looking to maximize their returns, little morality and even less sense. The Hoes can be the Labour party, selling their soul for a little bit of power, giving a snarling quickie "no more boom and bust" to a stupid punter, that would be us the voter. The money rolls in and your intelligence rolls out, anesthetised like all Pimp and Hoe relationships become. A quick thrill with no strings attached, no lasting feeling so you will be back for more. A relationship in tatters, zombie politics from the zombie party. It pretty well sums up the 13 years of Labour rule the young adults on the pub crawl will be paying for does it not? They are going to need a big dose of fantasy to help with the stark realities they will face, I would not begrudge them that.
Stay out of trouble and have a ball. And as you go through life look out for the real and dangerous Pimps & Hoes. Maybe for @PaulBlomfieldMP and his like the event is a little too close to the bone.
Ed Balls dressing up as a Nazi did not result in the introduction of death camps in Morley and Outwood. We keep getting the usual crap from the usual suspects? Firstly its good easy headlines, who would ever want to be a pimp or a hoe, its a no brainier. except this is not what the event is about, or the dressing up is about. Nice simple Brownie points for protecting the civic virtue by a champion of women's rights. Keep up your Profile is @PaulBlomfieldMP mantra.
So if a women quite liked the idea of selling her body for sex, would @PaulBlomfieldMP protect her rights to do just that, after all its her body? I doubt it. @PaulBlomfieldMP would be the deranged priest in the middle ages telling the Peasants not to pretend to be farm animals, "ungodly" he would shout, expect in the 21st Century we have a brand new type of Puritan, the secular one. the same mind set, the flock need a Shepard, they are not wise enough or adult enough to know the difference between the fantasy and the reality.
Maybe I am too liberal in my social attitudes? maybe a more interesting and enlightening pub crawl based on the symbolism of the Pimps & Hoes event, but a Labour and Bankers one. Think Edutainment. After all its the current generation who the bill and social costs fall too.
The Pimps can be the Bankers, always looking to maximize their returns, little morality and even less sense. The Hoes can be the Labour party, selling their soul for a little bit of power, giving a snarling quickie "no more boom and bust" to a stupid punter, that would be us the voter. The money rolls in and your intelligence rolls out, anesthetised like all Pimp and Hoe relationships become. A quick thrill with no strings attached, no lasting feeling so you will be back for more. A relationship in tatters, zombie politics from the zombie party. It pretty well sums up the 13 years of Labour rule the young adults on the pub crawl will be paying for does it not? They are going to need a big dose of fantasy to help with the stark realities they will face, I would not begrudge them that.
Stay out of trouble and have a ball. And as you go through life look out for the real and dangerous Pimps & Hoes. Maybe for @PaulBlomfieldMP and his like the event is a little too close to the bone.
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